The fact that no proportional representation election produces an exactly proportional result is not a justification for maintaining a grossly disproportional election law. If a straight 5% threshold had been applied in the most recent Moldovan election and all electors had behaved the same, the relative size of parties would have been maintained and the Communist Party would have retained an absolute majority of seats in Parliament (Table 2). However, there would have been five rather than three parties in Parliament, and the Opposition would have had 40 rather than 30 seats, thus enabling it to operate more effectively (Table 2). A 1% reduction in the threshold would have produced, ceteris paribus, an increase of 10 percentage points in the Index of Proportionality, raising it to 82, well within the range of countries negotiating European Union membership. Therefore, we would recommend a maximum threshold of 5% for the representation of single parties. Given the limited number of parties currently contesting elections in Moldova, there would appear no reason to raise the threshold higher for coalitions of parties. In summary, coalitions should be encouraged, rather than penalised.
Table 2.- Simulated effects of a 5% threshold in Moldova
Actual threshold: 6%
If threshold 5%:
2001 vote
Seats
Seats
Communists
50.1
71
61
Braghis Alliance
13.4
19
17
Christian Dem People’s
8.2
11
10
Rebirth & Conciliation
5.9
0
7
Democratic Party
5.0
0
6
All others
17.4
0
0
Source: “Election Results”, OSCE/ODIHR Final Report Moldova Election (Warsaw, 3 April 2001), p. 13.