Home > 3.2 Proportional systems > Comparative Report on thresholds and other features of electoral systems which bar parties from access to Parliament
 
 
 
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While the concept of national threshold is clearly different from the legal, or formal, threshold, it is obvious that depriving minor/new parties of accurate or any representation “can be done just as well by low district magnitude as by imposing a formal threshold”. As to the measurement of a country’s natural district threshold (average number), there is no formula that would work in all circumstances. Nonetheless, there is consensus that the following formulas [t=75%/(m+1), or m = (75%/t) -1], where “t” is the threshold” and “m” is the magnitude (number of seats per district), result in sufficiently accurate estimations of the natural threshold. To take an example, when seats are to be allocated through fourteen-seat districts, the natural threshold is 75%/(14+1), that is, 5%. This means that it is as difficult for a party to get into parliament in such circumstances as if there were a formal district threshold of 5%. Moreover, if there was a legal threshold of 5%, or lower, prescribed at the district level, such a legal threshold would be quite irrelevant: a party with fewer votes than 5% could not get a seat regardless of whether or not there was the legal threshold. The following are some examples of natural thresholds (average numbers) as calculated for some of the countries (source: P. Norris, note 3, pp 110-11):


Natural Threshold in Majority/Plurality Systems


Country Natural Threshold
Belarus 50%
France 50%
UK 35%


Natural Threshold in Combined Systems


Country Natural Threshold
Hungary 11.3%


Natural Threshold in Proportional Systems


Country Natural Threshold
Belgium 9.2%
Finland 5%
Iceland 10.8%
Ireland 15%
Luxembourg 4.8%
Portugal 6.7%
Spain 9.7%
Switzerland 9%